CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-05-09T18:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-05-09T18:23ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30655/-1
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] Partial halo CME seen in both coronagraphs and associated with an X1.1 flare from AR 3664 (S18W29) with a full halo faint shock and a slightly brighter fuzzy-fronted bulk to the west. The start time is possibly earlier that 2024-05-09T18:23Z bc of a SOHO data gap. Coronal signatures include a sizable ejecta from AR 3664 seen directed north-westwards at ~17:36ZZ in AIA 304, an elongated dimming extending northward and westward of the flare location and stretching as far as the two coronal holes north of the equator. A possible arrival signature is characterized by a weak rotation of magnetic field components, with Btotal reaching a maximum of 15nT. A subsequent increase in speed is observed from ~770 km/s to 1005 km/s at 2024-05-12T00:555Z and a sharp increase in temperature. Density appears to decrease preceding this arrival signature. Possibly this is a flank impact/glancing blow arrival. Due to the increase in solar wind speed a coronal hole high speed stream may also be embedded in this signature, originating from a coronal hole which reached the central meridian on 2024-05-03.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-11T20:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-12T02:28Z (-5.02h, +3.98h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2024/05/09 18:00Z Plane of Sky 1: 00:00Z; 31.5Rsun; WSW Direction Plane of Sky 2: 02:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NEN Direction POS Difference: 2:20 POS Midpoint: 01:10Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:10 Numeric View/Impact Type: 2 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.88 Travel Time: ~7.88 * 7:10 = 56:28 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-05-12T02:28Z Error Parameters: - POS Difference: 1 Hour - Travel Time Square Root: 50% Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5 Forecast Creation Time: 2024/05/10 02:54ZLead Time: 41.53 hour(s)
Difference: -5.97 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-05-10T02:58Z
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